TSF says Mambilla arbitration victory will boost Nigeria’s Economy

The ruling could further help remove a longstanding legal hurdle surrounding the Mambilla project, which it described as one of Nigeria’s major untapped infrastructure and energy opportunities

By Moses Okorie

The Tinubu Stakeholders Forum (TSF) has described Nigeria’s victory in the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) arbitration over the Mambilla Hydropower Project as a major development with significant implications for the country’s finances, electricity sector and wider economy.

The ICC tribunal rejected claims brought by Sunrise Power against the Federal Government, including a $2.35 billion claim arising from the long-running dispute over the project.

It also dismissed a separate $400 million claim linked to a proposed settlement, bringing the total potential exposure addressed in the related proceedings to more than $3.38 billion.

In a statement signed by its Chairman, Ahmad Sajoh, and Secretary, Danjuma Sada, the TSF said the significance of the ruling extended beyond the legal proceedings.

The forum said the decision had shielded the country from a potentially substantial financial liability while also providing for the recovery of legal costs.

According to the group, the ruling could further help remove a longstanding legal hurdle surrounding the Mambilla project, which it described as one of Nigeria’s major untapped infrastructure and energy opportunities.

“For Nigeria’s economy, the decision represents the avoidance of a potentially substantial financial liability, the recovery of legal costs and, potentially, the removal of a long-standing legal obstacle to one of the country’s most ambitious power projects,” it said.

TSF noted that the Mambilla project had remained entangled in a prolonged legal dispute, which it said had compounded the challenges facing the development of a project capable of significantly increasing Nigeria’s electricity generation capacity.

The forum said the arbitration outcome came at a critical time as the administration of President Bola Tinubu works to address structural and financial challenges in the electricity sector.

It noted that the Federal Government was implementing a structured plan to settle about ₦3.3 trillion in verified legacy obligations in the power sector.

Highlighting the financial implications of the arbitration outcome, TSF said the $3.38 billion in claims rejected in the related proceedings was higher than the government’s entire $2.3 billion legacy power-sector settlement programme.

“Eliminating this major liability prevents a massive financial drain, giving the government the necessary fiscal headroom to address inherited obligations and focus on sustainable power sector reforms,” the forum said.

The group also stressed that successful completion of the Mambilla project could have wider economic consequences beyond additional electricity generation.

It said increased and more reliable power supply would support manufacturing, mining, agriculture, technology and other productive sectors, while creating opportunities for investment, business expansion and employment.

TSF further said the successful resolution of the dispute demonstrated Nigeria’s willingness to protect its economic interests through established international dispute-resolution mechanisms.

It urged the Federal Government to use the arbitration victory as an opportunity to accelerate the next phase of the Mambilla project, while ensuring transparency, commercial discipline and robust contractual safeguards.