By Tom Ohikere
When Bola Ahmed Tinubu emerged as Nigeria’s president in 2023, many of his supporters presented his victory as the culmination of decades of political preparation. The slogan “Emilokan” “it’s my turn”—captured the confidence of a man widely regarded as a master strategist who had spent years positioning himself for the nation’s highest office. Three years later, however, many Nigerians are asking a simple question: what has all that political mastery delivered?
As the country slowly turns its attention toward the 2027 elections, the debate is no longer just about political alliances or electoral calculations. It is increasingly about performance. And for a growing number of citizens, the signs are troubling.
The Tinubu administration came into office promising bold economic reforms. The removal of fuel subsidies and the floating of the naira were presented as difficult but necessary decisions that would ultimately place Nigeria on a stronger economic footing. What Nigerians have experienced, however, has been a relentless rise in the cost of living. Food prices have soared. Transportation costs have become unbearable for many families. Rent has increased astronomically across major cities. Salaries have remained largely stagnant while inflation continues to erode purchasing power. For small business owners, the situation is equally difficult. Access to affordable credit remains limited, consumer spending is weak, and many enterprises are struggling to stay afloat. What was once considered the Nigerian middle class is finding it increasingly difficult to maintain its standard of living, while millions of poorer citizens are simply focused on survival. Government officials continue to point to long-term benefits and positive economic indicators, but for most Nigerians, those promises remain distant and abstract. Their daily reality is one of hardship.
If there was one area where Nigerians expected visible improvement, it was security. Yet across different parts of the country, insecurity remains a defining feature of everyday life. Communities continue to grapple with bandit attacks, kidnappings, insurgency, communal violence, and separatist tensions. Farmers in many areas are afraid to cultivate their lands. Travellers remain vulnerable on major highways. Families worry about the safety of their loved ones. While the government frequently announces new security initiatives, many citizens believe the response has often been reactive rather than proactive. The perception that the state is struggling to maintain control over parts of the country has weakened public confidence. After all, the first responsibility of any government is the protection of lives and property. When citizens feel unsafe, faith in governance inevitably suffers.
Another criticism frequently directed at the administration concerns its approach to appointments and governance. Supporters argue that every government rewards loyal allies and trusted associates. Critics counter that competence and expertise should always take precedence over political loyalty. The perception among many Nigerians is that political considerations often outweigh merit in key appointments. This has fueled concerns about whether the administration is assembling the strongest possible team to address the country’s complex challenges. Beyond appointments, critics point to a style of governance they see as overly centralized and insufficiently responsive to public concerns. Policies are often announced with confidence, but there is a widespread feeling that government officials are not listening closely enough to the people affected by those policies. Whether that perception is fair or not, it continues to shape public opinion.
The political coalition that brought Tinubu to power was broad enough to secure victory in 2023, but maintaining that coalition has proven far more difficult than building it. Economic hardship and insecurity have created dissatisfaction in many parts of the country. Regions that were once willing to give the administration the benefit of the doubt are becoming increasingly vocal in their criticisms. The Southeast remains largely opposed to the government. Parts of the North have expressed frustration over worsening living conditions and security concerns. The South-South and Middle Belt often complain of neglect. Even within the Southwest, where Tinubu traditionally enjoys strong support, rising hardship is testing political loyalty. History shows that electoral coalitions are fragile. When citizens feel the impact of economic pain directly, political calculations can change rapidly.
Three years after the 2023 election, debates surrounding the credibility of that contest have not completely disappeared. For Tinubu’s supporters, the election was settled through constitutional processes and judicial rulings. For his critics, lingering questions about the conduct of the election continue to cast a shadow over his mandate. Whether one agrees with those criticisms or not, perception matters in politics. A government that faces persistent questions about legitimacy often finds it harder to build trust and secure public buy-in for difficult reforms. When trust is weak, every policy becomes controversial and every government action is viewed through a lens of suspicion. As the country moves closer to 2027, several issues continue to dominate public discussion, which includes: the rising cost of living and economic hardship, persistent security challenges across multiple regions, concerns about governance, appointments, and accountability, growing political dissatisfaction among key constituencies, Ongoing debates about trust and legitimacy.
Individually, each of these issues presents a serious challenge. Together, they create a political environment that could become increasingly difficult for any incumbent administration to navigate.
Looking Ahead to 2027
Elections are ultimately decided not by slogans, campaign posters, or political speeches, but by the lived experiences of ordinary citizens. People judge governments by what they see in their wallets, in their communities, and in their daily lives. They compare promises with outcomes. They measure hope against reality. For President Tinubu, the road to 2027 will depend less on political strategy and more on whether Nigerians believe their lives have improved under his leadership. The warning signs are there. The frustrations are real. Whether the administration can reverse those perceptions before the next election remains one of the defining questions of Nigeria’s political future.
The 2027 presidency will not be about Tinubu’s strategy. It will be about Nigeria’s rejection of it. The signposts are already up. The only question is whether the political class is blind enough to ignore them.
Dr. Tom Ohikere is a public affairs analyst and media strategist