2023 and the Atiku option

By Majeed Dahiru

Following the presentation of expression of interest and nomination forms by a group, the North East Business Forum, to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, he will be publicly declaring his interest to contest for the presidency of Nigeria in the 2023 presidential election on the platform of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) today, Wednesday, March 23, 2022. At 75, Atiku Abubakar, a consummate politician and successful businessman, will be taking his fifth aim at the presidency of Fourth Republic Nigeria, having participated in every presidential election since 2007. For Atiku, it seems the presidency of Nigeria is not just a matter of lifelong ambition but a mission to make Nigeria a better place for Nigerians. However, with the clamour for a shift of presidential power to the southern part of Nigeria in 2023 after eight years in the North, Atiku, a Muslim from northern Nigeria, appears set to sail against the wind in the next presidential election.

Although not written, the zoning and rotation of political leadership positions among the constituent peoples of Nigeria, which has been a guiding principle in the multi-layered management of political power in Nigeria since 1999, is actually in fulfilment of the spirit of Section 14 [3] of the 1999 Constitution, which states: “The composition of the government of the federation or any of its agencies and the conduct of it affairs shall be carried out in such a manner as to promote federal character of Nigeria and the need to promote national unity, and also to command national loyalty, thereby ensuring that there shall be no predominance of persons from a few states or from a few ethnic or sectional groups in that government or any of its agencies.’

By 2023, Muhammadu Buhari, a Muslim from northern Nigeria, would have completed two terms of eight years as President of Nigeria and it is expected that presidential power should shift to the South for the sake of equity, fairness and justice.

Atiku himself has been an advocate and defender of the principles and zoning of political offices as a means of fostering equity, justice and peace in Nigeria to the extent of forgoing an opportunity to replace President Olusegun Obasanjo in 2003 in order to allow the South have its full turn of eight years at the presidency. And, in 2011, when President Goodluck Jonathan, a southerner, moved to violate the zoning arrangement by running for the office of the President even when it was still the turn of the North, Atiku challenged him at the presidential primary to stop him. In fact, the eventual defeat of Jonathan in the 2015 presidential election was largely attributed to the rage of the North in punishment for his attempted violation of the zoning principle for a second time. It is against this background that a dark cloud of moral uncertainty hovers around Atiku’s latest bid for the presidency of Nigeria.

Interestingly, while there is a clamour for power shift to the South, the major drivers of Atiku’s 2023 presidential move are also from the same southern part of Nigeria, a situation that has put the PDP in a quandary over the issue of power shift in 2023. So strong is the support of the South for Atiku that he has emerged the leading contender for the PDP ticket even when equity, fairness and justice demand a shift of power to the same region in 2023. But Atiku’s popularity and acceptance in the southern part of Nigeria is not a sudden happenstance. It is as a result of Atiku’s long-standing reputation as a liberal-minded, moderate-mannered politician whose unimpeachable nationalist credentials have shaped his views and guided the conduct of his private and public life. As a thoroughbred pan-Nigerian nationalist whose character is devoid of ethnic or religious bigotry and all forms of sectionalist tendencies, the essential Atiku has been endeared to every part of Nigeria through friendship and marital ties in the over 50 years of his public life. And in the last seven years, Atiku’s nationalist bonafides have been cemented by the stand he has taken on national issues.

* Dahiru

Atiku, an ethnic Fulani Muslim from northern Nigeria, has led the opposition to the elevation of sectionalism and the institution of ‘Arewa’ privilege by the administration of his kinsman, President Muhammadu Buhari. And when the South agonized over their marginalization in Buhari’s Nigeria, Atiku called out the government of the day and demanded a dismantling of its nepotistic and sectional administrative machinery even when it clearly favoured his own section of the country. Where the current administration has not been able combat the deadly farmers/herders’ clashes because of its insistence on exhuming non-existent grazing routes and reserves, Atiku has advocated modern methods of cattle breeding away from transhumance, while pledging to deal decisively with terrorists, irrespective of their ethnicity and religion. Similarly, coming from a region where religion has been weaponized as a destructive tool of political mobilization, Atiku, a devout Muslim, has resisted the temptation to be a purveyor of political Islam, to the detriment of Nigeria’s plural egalitarianism.

For a man who is not afraid to walk alone on the narrow and lonely but right path in national interest, Atiku has emerged a champion of restructuring of the Nigerian federation, something the South considers a the holy grail of some sorts, but regarded in the North as ‘haram.’ And, if placed on a scale of preference, many southerners will chose a restructured Nigeria over southern presidency. More than anything else, Atiku’s commitment to restructuring is the biggest force driving his presidential bid from the South. For the South, Atiku has demonstrated that he is as much as southerner as he is a northerner for sharing their legitimate aspiration for structural equity, fairness and justice. Having held power for 13 out of 24 years of democratic rule by 2023 without much benefit to the region in terms of socio-economic development, many in the South are increasingly demanding restructuring. And, given the reality of the political configuration of Nigeria, it is generally believed that it would take a northerner as President of Nigeria to lead the process of restructuring without breaking up the country. In the consideration of many in the South, Atiku is that northerner.

Notwithstanding the massive support for him from the South, Atiku needs to deepen and broaden his consultation with the people of the region to get their full backing for his 2023 presidential bid. The clamour for power shift remains a legitimate one and the willingness of the conservative North to cede power to the South in 2023 makes it even more imperative for Atiku to embark on an extensive tour of consultation with a region that has risked all to accept him even when he was rejected by his home region. And if the South whose turn it is to produce the President of Nigeria in 2023 decides to donate that right to Atiku, a man they consider as much a southerner as he is a northerner, then a positive disruption in the power management system of Nigeria would have happened for good.

Dahiru is a newspaper columnist and public affairs analyst.

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