How Canada’s Conservatives threw away a 27-point lead to lose again

An unstoppable movement has grown under his leadership, and I know we need Pierre fighting in the House of Commons

Conservatives in Canada are trading blame for Monday night’s election loss, showing that Pierre Poilievre will need to heal divisions within the movement as he fights to stay on as leader.

As a clear Liberal win was emerging on election night, Conservative candidates and their supporters had one question: What the heck just happened?

The party had lost a remarkable 27-point lead in opinion polls and failed to win an election for the fourth time in a row.

And while it gained seats and earned almost 42% of the popular vote – its highest share since the party was founded in 2003 – its leader Poilievre was voted out of the seat he had held for the past 20 years.

“Nobody’s happy about that,” Shakir Chambers, a Conservative strategist and vice-president of Ontario-based consultancy firm the Oyster Group, told the BBC.

The party is now trying to work out how it will move forward.

At the top of the agenda will be finding a way for the Conservatives to perform their duties as the Official Opposition – the second-place party in Canada’s parliament whose job is to hold the sitting government to account – without their leader in the House.

Ahead of a caucus meeting next Tuesday to discuss this, Poilievre announced on Friday his plan to run in an Alberta constituency special election to win back a seat.

That special election will be triggered by the resignation of Conservative MP-elect Damien Kurek, who said he will voluntarily step down to let Poilievre back in after what he called “a remarkable national campaign”.

“An unstoppable movement has grown under his leadership, and I know we need Pierre fighting in the House of Commons,” Kurek said in a statement.

Unlike the US, federal politicians in Canada do not have to live in the city or province they run in. Poilievre grew up in Alberta, however, and will likely win handily as the constituency he is running in is a Conservative stronghold.

A big question is whether Poilievre still has the backing of his own party to stay on as leader. Mr Chambers said the answer, so far, is a resounding yes.

“Pierre has a lot of support in the caucus,” he said. “I don’t think there’s anybody that wants him removed, or that has super high ambitions that wants to replace him as leader.”

A number of high-profile Conservatives have already rallied behind him. One of them is Andrew Scheer, a current MP and former leader of the party, who said Poilievre should stay on to “ensure we finish the job next time”.

bbc.com

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