The former Club Brugge man has netted only one goal in his last eight Premier League appearances.
Former Arsenal fan Emmanuel Dennis faces the side he used to support growing up, but you would think there is a lot more on his mind than his old love.
Watford host the Gunners at Vicarage Road on Sunday knowing full well time is running out in their ambition to beat the drop.
The Hornets may sit three points from safety but have played two games more than 17th-placed Everton. While games outstanding will not necessarily lead to points on board, the absence of goals is a worry for Roy Hodgson’s men.
Immediately typifying the Hertfordshire outfit’s dearth of goals is Dennis, whose lull could not have come at a worse time for the side battling relegation.
Eight goals in 16 Premier League appearances was a great start for the forward in a new league and it represented a change for a player who had not scored since February until that debut strike against Aston Villa in gameweek one.
Only one strike in the following eight outings have followed, coinciding with Watford’s worst moment of the campaign. They picked up four wins from those 16 games — claiming a victory in 25 percent of their games — an improvement on the ongoing run which has seen them win one in eight, halving their win percentage.
Admittedly, Hodgson has shored up the defence, keeping three clean sheets in his opening six games, but the inconsistent productivity up top is undermining any perceived improvement at the back.
For Dennis’ part, this was always a possibility, especially for someone who had not been pulling up trees before this season started.
At the end of 2021 in England’s top flight, only Emile Smith Rowe was finishing at a deadlier standard than the Nigerian, who ranked ninth in Europe’s top five leagues. Three months into the New Year, the Super Eagle has fallen to 41st in that ranking, although the 3.1 over-performance of his Expected Goals (down from 4.2 in December) still looks decent.
Scoring nine times from xG of 5.9 is commendable, but it does not explain why the 25-year-old has stopped scoring.
A dive into Dennis’ underlying numbers per FBref reveal that he averaged 0.27 xG per game in the opening 16 league games this term, demonstrating a clinical edge based on the quality of chances he was receiving at the time.
Interestingly, this has dropped even further in the last eight games, with the Nigerian’s xG per match falling to 0.19 since netting in Watford’s 4-1 defeat by West Ham United on December 28.
An inability to hit the target consistently has been a worry in that time, with only four of Dennis’ 14 shots on target. This accounts for 28.6 percent of his attempts, a drop off from 55.9 percent, having hit the target 19 times from 34 efforts in the first 16 matches.
Watford, who encouragingly sit 12th for volume of big chances (40), are strikingly also creating far less in recent weeks, with their expected goals per game sliding from a rather low 1.17 xG per game before the New Year to 0.8 since the start of 2022.
Perhaps this explains Dennis’ drop off heading into the business end of what promised to be a stunning opening year in the big time.
Watford face in-form Arsenal looking to end the Gunners’ three-game winning run, and you sense the game carries added significance for the Hornets’ top scorer.
“I used to be an Arsenal fan. I like Cesc Fabregas. But I’m no more an Arsenal fan,” the ex-Gooner revealed in December. “I was so much into Arsenal sometimes I could cry when they lose. That wasn’t good for me.
“So I was like, ‘Nah, I’m going to stick to myself and don’t care much because it’s not good for my health’. It’s just me and myself right now.”
Dennis will not be losing any sleep if his 10th league goal of the season halts the Gunners’ four-game unbeaten run and strengthens the Hornets’ fading prospects of survival.
For Watford supporters, that will be timely and just what the doctor ordered.
– goal.com